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  Fantasy Football Scouts


2007 IDP Draft Tips
4for4.com Exclusive
by Brian Rosebrook
posted 08/27/07


Drafting Individual Defensive Players may seem like a daunting task when you first get involved in an IDP league. Remember, it’s like any other position, just without all the publicity. IDPs aren’t that difficult, it simply takes a little time to research the players that are out there.

A key factor when ranking IDPs is to remember to customize your rankings, gearing those rankings towards your league settings. IDPs can have a wide array of point settings. If you’re league is rather unique in its IDP scoring, customize your rankings (see pcDrafter for customization).

When discussing players in this article, I’ll often refer to 4for4’s Power Rankings for IDPs, which can be found here http://www.4for4.com/members/idpALL.php. With those Power Rankings, 100 is the best and only reserved for the top players.

The Average Draft Position (ADP) information herein was derived from over 1,000 IDP drafts, so it’s safe to say it’s accurate.


Linebacker Analysis

The linebacker position provides more depth than the other two IDP positions, defensive linemen and defensive backs. This thought lends a hand to the idea of going after one of the top DBs or DLs before grabbing your guy at LB. There are only a handful of top tier players at those two positions, making those top tier guys more valued in my book. On the other hand, be careful not to let the run on LBs catch you by surprise leaving you with chopped liver at the position.

I’d target one of the top 9 guys at this position: Ryans, Urlacher, Thomas, Bulluck, Fletcher, Lewis, Pierce, Merriman and Hawk. There’s not a huge drop-off after these guys, but big enough to make them pretty valuable. The following should help you IDP managers sort out some of the LB mess.


Underrated

LB – Zach Thomas (MIA) - 4for4 Power Rating – 100
For some reason Zach Thomas is highly underrated thus far in drafts with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 96. He’s being picked 7th among linebackers and 10th overall among IDPs! 4for4’s Power Ratings (PR) have him rated at 100, the top rating possible, and of course the top spot among LBs!

Sure he’s not getting any younger and will eventually slow down some day, but he showed no signs of slowing down last year and should be just fine this year.

He’s being drafted 20-30 spots behind equally rated guys like DeMeco Ryans and Brian Urlacher. He’s also being passed over for lower rated guys like Shawn Merriman and A.J. Hawk. Merriman in particular is being selected 2 rounds before Thomas. Merriman will be discussed later.

On draft day don’t be afraid to target the veteran Thomas late in the 8th round or early in the 9th rd. Consider that a steal while other teams have drafted their #1 LB 2 rounds earlier.


LB – Ray Lewis (BAL) – 4for4 Power Rating – 97
Lewis is another veteran LB that looks to be underrated thus far in IDP drafts. His ADP is 111, which is 11th among LBs and 18th overall among IDPs, even though 4for4 has him ranked 6th among LBs and 9th overall with a power rating of 97. His PR is 5 and 6 points higher than fellow LBs Lofa Tatupu and Lance Briggs who are being drafted around the same time as Lewis.

If you can grab Lewis in the 10th round, go ahead and get him, possibly as your 2nd LB after stealing Zach Thomas a round or two earlier.


Overrated

LB – DeMeco Ryans (HOU) – 4for4 Power Rating – 100
Don’t get me wrong, DeMeco Ryans is a stud IDP who will still strive in his 2nd year with Houston. But with an ADP of 68 that makes him overrated in my book. That’s the 6th round in a typical 12-team draft! That’s the time of the draft where you could grab your steal at QB or WR, positions that provide much more in the terms of fantasy points. Plus, there’s a great crop of linebackers that makes this the deepest position in IDP, so there’s no need to reach for any LB in the 6th round.

According to the ADP numbers you could wait two rounds and get an almost equal value in Zach Thomas or London Fletcher. Wait one round and get Urlacher or the slightly lower rated Keith Bulluck. This is a classic situation of the top player in his position being highly sought after and being drafted too high, comparable to Chicago’s D where you could wait for Baltimore or NE’s D. Another analogy is taking Steve Smith too high just because he’s the mythical #1 WR, even though there are several guys comparable to him that are available later on.

On draft day I’d try to avoid taking Ryans unless you can grab him late in the 7th round, which is comparable to the other top linebackers.


LB – Shawne Merriman (SD)- 4for4 Power Ranking – 95
4for4’s Power Rankings have Merriman 8th among LBs and 13th overall among IDPs. On the flip side his ADP is 77, where he’s being picked 3rd among LBs and 3rd overall! With those numbers, Shawne is an easy target for the overrated label.

Merriman’s being drafted three rounds ahead of Ray Lewis, who’s rated 2 points ahead of Merriman in 4for4’s power ratings. Also, he’s being picked two rounds ahead of Antonio Pierce who’s equally rated to Merriman. Obviously, Lewis and Pierce are two under-the-radar guys I’d target on draft day as good value picks. This is a classic situation of a popular, flashy, “lights out” player being over-hyped on a good team.

While other managers are reaching for Merriman, you could stack up on your offense, wait a round and still get a top tier linebacker ranked ahead of Merriman!

The only exception to this idea is if your league gives extra points for big plays like sacks and tackles for loss, then Merriman would warrant a higher pick. Otherwise if your league is like most with normal tackle based scoring systems, then he does warrant the overrated label.


LB – Demarcus Ware (DAL) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 81
Ware has an ADP of 110, making him the 10th LB drafted and the 16th IDP drafted overall. Those are shocking numbers because 4for4’s power rankings have him rated as the 22nd LB and the 48th overall IDP.

Ware’s versatility on the field lends to his overrated status. If he qualifies as a defensive lineman in your league, then don’t be afraid to grab him while other DL like Justin Smith and Charles Grant are being taken.


Defensive Lineman Analysis

The crop of defensive lineman isn’t as deep or as strong as the linebacker position. Peppers, Taylor and Kampman are a cut above the next level of guys, so targeting one of those three is definitely a good idea. If you can’t get one of the top three, then at least go after Suggs, Schobel, Umenyiora, Allen or Hali.

Linebackers are obviously valued more because of their tackle numbers. If your league requires starting a LB, DL and DB, then you should not be afraid to draft one of the top D Lineman when everyone else is reaching for a 2nd tier LB.


Underrated

DE – Tamba Hali (KC) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 88
The 2nd year player Hali is being slightly overlooked in drafts going at #168 on average, which is 12th among lineman. 4for4 has him ranked 8th at the position. Yeah, it’s not a huge decline in value, but there aren’t many linemen that are being extremely overrated. That’s because there’s so many linebackers being overvalued and drafted ahead of top tier lineman like Hali.

Being a 2nd year player it’s hard to judge how he’ll respond after his first full season, a season that’s much different than college football. I think he’ll bounce back just fine and justify that 8th ranking because other than Jared Allen, the Chiefs have no other huge threat fantasy wise so the opportunities will be there for Hali to succeed.

Available in the 14th round, Hali would be a solid, not great, #1 DL. If you’re set with studs at LB and DB, and still get Hali, you should be more than pleased with your stacked IDPs.


DE – Charles Grant (NO) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 83
Grant’s ADP is at a remarkable 194, being the 17th lineman taken on average. On the other hand 4for4 has him at the 11th spot among DLs.

Some pundits are afraid of his new contract resulting in less production. He may have peaked back in 2004 when he had a great year with 11 sacks, but he can still be a dominant fantasy force at times. Plus with teams falling behind early and often against the Saints, he’ll have ample opportunity to pursue the quarterback.

On draft day, don’t be afraid to grab him as your 2nd defensive lineman if needed. If you end up with him as your #1 guy at the position, but have a stud at LB and DB, then consider yourself lucky. He should be available beyond the 16th round.


Overrated

DE – Robert Mathis (IND) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 73
Mathis is being drafted 152nd on average, 8th among lineman. Those are shocking numbers when you consider he’s ranked 19th among lineman according to 4for4’s rankings.

He’s being taken before guys like Tamba Hali, Leonard Little and Will Smith, the 8th, 9th and 10th rated lineman according to 4for4!

Yes, he will get plenty of opportunities to rush the passer, but the Super Bowl Champ hype may be playing a role in his overrated status. Please don’t chase after him in the 13th round, rather wait for him as a quality backup around pick 200.


DE – Dwight Freeney (IND) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 69
Probably the most overrated defensive lineman in fantasy football, Freeney’s ADP is 159, 11th among lineman. Meanwhile his 4for4 ranking makes him 23rd among lineman!

For some reason the Indy bookends are both highly overrated. Could it be because they starred in the Super Bowl last season, or because the Colts are on prime time every other week?

I would avoid Freeney on draft day. His ADP is way to high to be considered. Let other naïve managers make that mistake while you can get a guy like Ali or Little around the same time as Freeney.


Defensive Back Analysis

Like the defensive lineman, the pool of defensive backs is not that deep, so getting one of the top tier guys is ultra important. Adrian Wilson of Arizona is the class of the group, and with his value being dead on, you’ll have to spend a pick in the 8th round to get him. Don’t be afraid to grab him here while other managers are grabbing their over-hyped linebacker. I’d much rather have the consensus #1 DB, than reach for an overrated LB, when you could get your top tier underrated LB in Thomas, Lewis or Pierce in the 9th round!

If you can’t get Wilson you then need to grab one of the other top 6 guys in Polamalu, Bailey, Hope, Rhodes, Barber or Sean Taylor. The DBs after them represent a considerable drop-off in fantasy numbers.


Underrated

S - Troy Polamalu (PIT) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 95
This USC product has an ADP of 112, which is 5th among DBs and 18th overall. He should be picked 2nd among DBs, 12th overall, but even with the cool name he’s still not getting the respect he deserves.

The attacking defensive style Pittsburgh employs provides Polamalu with plenty of chances to make the big play. With a healthy Roethlisberger this year the offense should play better, giving the defense more freedom to attack.

If Wilson is off the board, Polamalu is the next best thing at the position. While other managers are reaching for a LB, you could grab Polamalu early in the 10th round, the same time the overvalued LB Demarcus Ware is being drafted.


S – Michael Huff (OAK) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 78
This 2nd year player could be the steal of the draft at this position. Huff’s ADP is an astonishing 249, which is 35th among DBs. 4for4 has him ranked 16th at his position!

The word out of Oakland is that Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan will allow Huff to roam the secondary even more this year. This will open up all sorts of opportunities for Huff to make some big plays this season. His tackle numbers were great last year for a part-time starter. As a full time guy this year, look for Huff to post #1 DB numbers by the middle of the season.

Grab him late in your draft as your 2nd DB, and watch him soar as the season rolls along.


Overrated

S – Sean Jones (CLE) – 4for4 Power Ranking – 85
Jones ADP of 129, 6th among DBs, makes him the only legitimate overrated defensive back in the draft. 4for4 has him ranked 11th among DBs.

Don’t get me wrong; he’s not a bad player. He posted solid tackle numbers last year to go along with 5 interceptions.

He’d be a great pick in the 13th or 14th round, around the same time as Gibril Wilson or veteran Brian Dawkins. Otherwise, he’s not worth taking in the 11th round where he’s been going. You could be getting much better value in guys like Ronde Barber at DB, or even highly rated lineman Schobel and Umenyiora in the 11th round.


 


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